Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure

This paper examines uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) and the expectations hypotheses of the term structure (EHTS) at both short and long horizons. The statistical evidence against UIRP is mixed and is currencynot horizon-dependent. Economically, the deviations from UIRP are less pronounced than previously documented. The evidence against the EHTS is statistically more uniform, but, economically, actual spreads and theoretical spreads (spreads constructed under the null of the EHTS) do not behave very di erently, especially at long horizons. Partly because of this, the deviations from the EHTS only play a minor role in explaining deviations from UIRP at long horizons. A random walk model for both exchange rates and interest rates ts the data marginally better than the UIRP-EHTS model.